#Hurricane schwartz winter forecast 2021 professional#

We’ve found warmer-than-normal conditions surrounding these break-away cold domes and, where the cold surges and abundant warmth collide, we find snow. Instead, we find warming in high levels of the atmosphere dislodging cold near the ground, sending it in fractured pools southward as surges of intense, exceptional, but relatively localized cold. As the atmosphere warms, the tried and true pattern of polar cold north and warmer air south breaks down. There is an unquestionable link to a changing climate in all of these signals – even the cold and snowy ones. We’ve seen this unfold in several ways: the now-famous “polar vortex” delivering intense bursts of dramatic cold the record-shattering winter of 2015 here in New England where our seasonal snow record was broken in two months after a lackluster start to winter stretches where winter is seemingly absent and replaced by mild spells and a snow drought entire winter seasons that pass without much in the way of meaningful snow. For the last several years in the continental United States and particularly the East Coast, when it comes to snow and winter cold, you’re either in it, or you’re not.ĭrier air moves in, temperatures set to soar The conversation started with an acknowledgement that winter is no longer what it used to be. Yet, whether it’s from the government, the Farmer’s Almanac or Old Farmer’s Almanac, a media outlet or an otherwise unknown social media account unsuspecting internet users happen upon, we as a society seemingly can’t get enough of gazing into a murky crystal ball to see exactly what pains the next winter will hold for us.įor exactly that reason, meteorologists representing all of our NBC owned stations in the Northeast met virtually for the second year in a row to brainstorm forecast thoughts for the upcoming Winter of 2020-2021 – and you might be surprised at where we landed. That prediction is met with as little as a six degree error at Day 10, depending on the season – and a seasonal forecast, for which even those who devote their lives to constructing find a success rate better than a coin flip, but not always: on average, about a 40% improvement over a random guess. on the first weekday of each new month finds a happy medium between our 10-day forecast. Of course, there’s a middle ground: the monthly forecast you see from 4 a.m.

#Hurricane schwartz winter forecast 2021 professional#

Though there are those who’ve devoted their entire professional lives to the study of seasonal prediction, those of us in the sector of broadcast meteorology are jacks of all trades, forecasting daily weather predictions and, for the brave, trying our hand at seasonal forecasting, as well. A winter seasonal forecast: entertainment or science? The truth lies somewhere in between.